NEW YORK TIMES, October 31, 2008 COMMENTS
Andrew Kohut remains one of the most trustworthy poll leaders in the US, and the Pew Research Center is also one of the most reliable nonpartisan polling organizations in the US. Kohut and the Pew Research Center provide us the most scientifically conducted polls possible
and both are a model for all other polls in the US. His prediction for the election on Tuesdy is welcome and though Obama remains highly
active until the end, we can believe that (unless some unexpected event occurs–an October surprise, which some worried that the
attack in Syrian territory might have been) he and Biden will be our President Elect and Vice Presdent Elect on November 5.
A Chinese professor, who is an American Studies expert, and I will be observing and commenting live on Tuesday, November 4 from 19:30-22:30 (here–12 hour time difference with the US East Coast and on November 5 from 8am to 12:30pm with aCalifornia 16 hours
difference from Shanghai) on the Intercultural Channel of Shanghai (ICS) on the election as it proceeds, first at the opening of the voting on the US East Coast on Tuesday night and then as the voting has proceeded across the US time zones on Wednesday morning here.
Though I have already cast my absenteen vote for Obama, I will make every effort to be thoroughly professional and objective as we
comment live on the election for an audience of several millions in Shanghai (eighth largest city in the world) and the surrounding areas).
This means that we need highly accurate polling data, exit interviews, and predictons and calls for individual state results on such channels as BBC, CNN, MSNBC, CBS, Aljazeera, etc. which will be reporting on the election as it proceeds. I assume that we will be viewing several
channels as we are commenting.
The fact that the International Channel of Shanghai (an English language channel that began in January, 2008) is devoting 7 hours of
direct live coverage and commentary by the Chinese professor and me and an anchor, has sent two reporters to Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, and Washington, D.C. for about 8 days of coverage, and has had several earlier programs related to the election, indicates the
tremendous Shanghai area interest in the election. I am pleased to have this opportunity to spend the 7 hours as a commentator as the
actual voting proceeds. No doubt the channel will have several follow-up programs on the results of the election.
Some analysts worry that after the election, a totally unchecked actions that might be detrimental to the next president and binds his
hands. This happened in 1992 when Bush 41 announced the day after the election that he was sending marines into Somalia–sort of a
middle finger to President Elect Clinton–and a situation that ended badly. In the post election period, as the president-elect needs to
work closely with President Bush on several critical issues, such as the worsening financial crisis, the US-Iraq agreement for the continued
military presence in Iraq until 2011, decisions about Pakistan and Afghanistan, the Iranian sanctions, the Israeli-Palesitanian situation, etc.
we all must hope that Bush's government still for almost 3 months will allow the president elect to begin to set policies for the new
administration, unhampered by November surprises by the outgoing administration. Additionally, as other analysts have argued, we must
hope that if elected President Elect Obama will name all of his top cabinet members, including State, Defense, Homeland Security, and
Treasurary and others at least within days of the election and certainly before Thanksgiving, November 27. As McCain has said, if Obama is elected, he doesn't have much time to learn on the job after the inauguration.
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